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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."