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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.

Current Realities

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.